Three climate change thresholds found rangelands

This map shows how several climate change thresholds are expected to change by 2050. Three threshold flips are mapped; the 20% loss of LGP and maximum temperature over 30°C will have negative effects on production and productivity in those areas of the rangelands that are so affected, while the third (annual temperature over 8°C) may have positive effects via the extension of growing season and/or an increase in the land areas suitable for rangeland vegetation. Whereas the previous map focused on the rangelands and types of rangelands affected, this map focuses on the climate thresholds themselves. 

Key figures

1. It is predicted that approximately 31% of rangelands will be affected by one or more climate change thresholds by the year 2050. It is predicted that approximately 12 million km2 be affected by a maximum temperature aver 30°C, and 9.6 million km2 be affected by a shorter growing season. A further 3 million km2 will be impacted by annual temperature over 8 degrees. 

2. It is predicted that approximately 13 million km2 of deserts and xeric shrublands, 7.5 million km2 of tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannahs and shrublands, and 2 million km2 of temperate grasslands, savannahs and shrublands will be affected by 1-2 of the three climate change thresholds. 

3. Most (approximately 17.6 million km2) rangelands will be impacted by one climate change threshold, and 3.3 million km2 will be impacted by two climate change thresholds. It is predicted that no rangeland will be impacted by all three thresholds. 

Three climate change thresholds found rangelands
Legend

Statistics V1 and V2

No

CC thresholds status

Area km2

1

> 20 % loss

9,644,714

2

> 8 º C

3,080,657

3

> 35 º C 

12,298,038

No

No CC threshold 

Area km2

1

1 threshold

17,600,606

2

2 thresholds

3,302,202

3

3 thresholds

0

Total

20,902,809

 

Sources

Source 1: Terrestial ecoregions of the World. World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). Downloaded in 2021: https://globil-panda.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/terrestrial-ecoregion…. Original source: Olson, D. M., Dinerstein, E., Wikramanayake, E. D., Burgess, N. D., Powell, G. V. N., Underwood, E. C., D'Amico, J. A., Itoua, I., Strand, H. E., Morrison, J. C., Loucks, C. J., Allnutt, T. F., Ricketts, T. H., Kura, Y., Lamoreux, J. F., Wettengel, W. W., Hedao, P., Kassem, K. R. 2001. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth. Bioscience 51(11):933-938.

Source 2:Projections to 2050 using a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and data from an ensemble of 17 climate models taken from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme.

Reference paper: Herrero M., Addison J., Bedelian C., Carabine E., Havlík P., Henderson B., van de Steeg J. & Thornton P.K. – Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz., 2016, 35 (2), 417–433.